Monday, 18 February 2013

Lymphoy Cup Musings

Susan Kesley could still win (I think!) - but only with a following wind.  Bob Barr might still come second, but JCB is officially goosed!

Let's cover some easy ground first.  As exclusively revealed in the last post, Jenny is goosed!  With three games to go, she can get to seven points which would be good enough for second right now, but there are too many points up for grabs elsewhere to make a realistic case.  I might come back to that, though!

Bob, who plays Andrew Barr, Susan and Jenny, could reach eight points.  His lower table colleagues will need to come to the table to ensure that the guys higher up the table stay where they are, so Susan would need to beat John and Brian; Andrew Barr would need to deal with Andrew Galloway as would Jenny and Katie.  There would need to be shenanigans between Katie, John and Brian with a couple of drawn games in there.  Let's say she draws with them both; they would both get to seven and she would be on seven.  Again from Bob's perspective, There are bound to be points won in the Andrew G versus Katie game.  If the game is drawn, Andrew could move to nine and Katie to eight.  If Katie wins, she would move to nine and Andrew remain on eight.  If Andrew wins, he moves to ten and Katie stays on seven.  The best Bob can hope for is second place and the Glenbrook Quaich.

That's the maximum that Andrew Barr can get to as well - he has played one game more that Bob.  His ends total is well down as well; I am struggling to make a case for him.  I suppose that Richard Dawkins might find God - but I don't think it's likely.  Doubtless Niall will find a way.  He's a surveyor, but there are so many points available to teams above them in the league...

Susan Kesley plays John Steven, Bob Barr and Brian Fleming.  If she wins all three then she gets to ten points.  The trouble is that Katie plays Andrew Galloway, Brian and John Steven - all of whom are at the top end of the table.  Each of those games is worth two points.  Let's imagine that Katie wins all her games and that Andrew loses all of his.  He would stay on eight points and Katie would move to eleven points.  In that example John loses both games and so remains on six points.  Brian loses to Susan but beats Katie, so moves to eight points.  Suppose he draws with Katie?  Katie moves to ten points and he would move to 7.

Aha!  Bob Barr and Andrew Barr draw.  Susan beats Bob and so does Jenny.  Bob moves to five.  Andrew Barr, having drawn with Bob, then beats Andrew Galloway, so he moves to seven.

Now, let's look at Brian Fleming's run-in.  In the above scenario, he loses to Katie and he loses to Susan, so Susan leapfrogs him in the final table.

Then it comes to ends won and herein lies the problem with the theory.  Susan only has eleven of the blighters to Andrew Galloway's twenty-one.  This is a tricky mountain to climb - right up there with a Pope deciding to retire early.  Nae chance!  Well - slim at any rate!

Mind you, If Susan can come second, then so can anyone else!

What of potential winners?  The target is simple for Andrew Galloway - two wins secures the league.  No one else can score twelve points.  He has Jenny, Katie and Andrew Barr to play.  John Steven plays Susan and Katie so can get to ten points.  The same is true of Brian.  They are both looking for favours but it is eminently do-able.  Katie perhaps has the best chance and is in a strong position because she does have Andrew G to play.  She can get to eleven points - tough run-in though with the three other teams in the top four to play.

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